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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.